ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF THE RUSSIAN COAL MARKET

Authors:

E.S. Materova1, N.V. Stolbovskaya2, A.V. Novikov2, M.E. Konovalova1, R.R. Sharafullina3, E.A. Taran4, N.O. Chistyakova4
1 Samara State University of Economics, Samara, 443090, Russian Federation
2 Saint Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, Saint Petersburg, 199106, Russian Federation
3 Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, 450076, Russian Federation
4 National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation, e-mail: nedlen63@yandex.ru
Authors Information
Materova E.S. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Samara State University of Economics, Samara, 443090, Russian Federation, e-mail: nedlen63@yandex.ru
Stolbovskaya N.V. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Sectoral Economics, Saint Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, Saint Petersburg, 199106, Russian Federation, e-mail: Stolbovskaya_NV@pers.spmi.ru
Novikov A.V. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Sectoral Economics, Saint Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II, Saint Petersburg, 199106, Russian Federation, e-mail: Novikov_AV@pers.spmi.ru
Konovalova M.E. – Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Economic Theory, Samara State University of Economics, Samara, 443090, Russian Federation, e-mail: mkonoval@mail.ru@yandex.ru
Sharafullina R.R. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory and Regional Development, Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, 450076, Russian Federation,
e-mail: rozalia-23.05@yandex.ru
Taran E.A. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of Economics and Production Organization, Business School, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation, e-mail: ektaran@tpu.ru
Chistyakova N.O. – Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of Economics and Production Organization, Business School, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation, e-mail: chistyakovano@tpu.ru

UDC: 338.45?313?:622.3 c E.S. Materova1, N.V. Stolbovskaya2, A.V. Novikov2, M.E. Konovalova1, R.R. Sharafullina3, E.A. Taran4, N.O. Chistyakova4, 2026
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2026-8-51-56

Abstract

The article assesses the current situation in the Russian coal market and forecasts its medium-term development. An analysis of the in dustry’s state for 2020-2024 was made based on a classical system of indicators. It was found that the traditional set of indicators does not allow for a comprehensive assessment of the efficient implementation of the export potential in conditions of infrastructural constraints. An Export Potential Implementation Index (EPI) was proposed to address this gap. Assessments by international, government, and local research organizations were compared In the forecast section, and two factors that were overlooked in official forecasts were identified, i.e. the nonlinear nature in the capacity expansion of the Eastern Range of Russian Railways and a structural decline in the calorific value of the export basket. Taking these adjustments into account, the author provides an assessment of the export volume of the weighted average price of the coal produced. The practical significance of this work lies in justification of a new integrated market indicator and formulation of practical recommendations for adapting the industry policy to the identified constraints. .

Keywords: Eastern range of russian railways, export potential implementation index, infrastructural constraints, market conditions, forecasting, price discount, coal exports.

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For citation

Materova E.S., Stolbovskaya N.V., Novikov A.V., Konovalova M.E., Sharafullina R.R., Taran E.A., Chistyakova N.O. Assessment and forecasting of the Russian coal market. Ugol’. 2026;(8):51-56. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2026-8-51-56.

Paper Info
Received: June 16, 2026
Reviewed: July 17, 2026
Accepted: July 30, 2026