PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COAL MINING INDUSTRY IN RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS: A SCENARIO APPROACH

Authors:

O.V. Zonova, E.V. Slesarenko, O.B. Sheveleva, V.S. Chekanova
T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, Kemerovo, 650000, Russian Federation e-mail: zov.fk@kuzstu.ru
Authors Information
Zonova O.V. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit, T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, Kemerovo, 650000, Russian Federation, e-mail: zov.fk@kuzstu.ru
Slesarenko E.V. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit,
T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, Kemerovo, 650000, Russian Federation, e-mail: sev.fk@kuzstu.ru
Sheveleva O.B. – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit,.T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, Kemerovo, 650000, Russian Federation, e-mail: shob.fk@kuzstu.ru
Chekanova V.S. – Student of group BEs-241, T.F. Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, Kemerovo, 650000, Russian Federation, e-mail: chekanovаviktoria8927@gmail.com

UDC: 338.124 c O.V. Zonova, E.V. Slesarenko, O.B. Sheveleva, V.S. Chekanova, 2026 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2026-6-17-20

Abstract

The shocks and restrictions faced by the Russian economy in recent years have led to a profound structural and economic crisis in the coal mining industry. This study examines possible scenarios and strategic measures implemented by the Russian Government to stabilize the current state of the coal industry in the face of ongoing sanctions restrictions on Russian coal exports (demand shocks) and declining global prices (economic shocks). Scenarios for redirecting exports ?to the East? and converting the industry to coking coal production are already being fully implemented through Russian Government support measures and have short-term prospects. However, they are significantly limited in achieving a long-term stabilization effect and reducing the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks. Under these conditions, the authors believe that the development of singleindustry regional economies based on extensive growth in the extractive industry has exhausted its potential, and the longterm development prospects of such regions (in particular, the Kemerovo Region-Kuzbass) are linked to a profound transformation of their structure.

Keywords: Structural transformation, scenario approach, coal mining industry, external constraints, long-term development.

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For citation

Zonova O.V., Slesarenko E.V., Sheveleva O.B., Chekanova V.S. Prospects for the development of the coal mining industry in Russia in the context of external shocks: a scenario approach. Ugol’. 2026;(6):17-20. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2026-6-17-20.

Paper Info
Received: December 24, 2025
Reviewed: May 18, 2026
Accepted: May 30, 2026