INTEGRATED RISK-ORIENTED MODEL FOR MANAGING THE LIFECYCLE OF UNDERGROUND MINING WORKINGS

Abstract

The article discusses a modern risk-oriented approach that allows for a transition from passive response to proactive prevention of accidents in the reinforcement and maintenance of underground mine workings. This approach is based on the creation of a universal probabilistic model for assessing and aggregating geotechnical risks into a single risk-oriented system that not only predicts adverse events but also reduces the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the facility. The article presents an overview of scientific approaches to risk management and monitoring of the surrounding massif of mine workings. It also discusses the implementation of a comprehensive program for securing and monitoring the condition of a target mine workings at a mining enterprise with the involvement of RANK 2 LLC. The practical part of the article provides an analysis of the implementation of a risk-oriented system at a real mining enterprise based on the data from the Elmon ADCK system. The implementation of a risk-based model for mine workings lifecycle management resulted in a significant economic effect, expressed in a total assessment of a 22-25% reduction in TCO in the total cost of ownership of mine workings.

Keywords

Elmon ADCK, time series, mine workings support, Q index, risk indicator, monitoring, proactive risk management, RMR rating, risk-based approach.

References

1. Guseva I.B., Kudryashova O.V. Issledovanie podkhodov k otsenke riskov NIOKR // Nauka v tsentral'noy Rossii. 2013. № 4. S. 94-96. Guseva I.B., Kudryashova O.V. Research of Approaches to Assessing R&D Risks. Nauka v tsentralnoj Rossii. 2013;(4):94-96. (In Russ.).
2. Chudinov P.Yu., Galkin V.I., Ponomareva I.N. Otsenka kharaktera nasyshcheniya produktivnykh plastov na osnove analiza geologicheskikh parametrov // Nedropol'zovanie. 2025. T. 25. № 2. S. 86-94. Chudinov P.Yu., Galkin V.I., Ponomareva I.N. Assessment of the nature of saturation of productive formations based on the analysis of geological parameters. Nedropolzovanie. 2025;25(2):86-94. (In Russ.).
3. Khakzad N., Khakzad S., Khan F. Probabilistic risk assessment of major accidents: application to offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico. Natural Hazards. 2014;(74):1759-1771.
4. Kokangul A., Polat U., Da?suyu C. A new approximation for risk assessment using the AHP and Fine Kinney methodologies. Safety Science. 2017;(91):24-32.
5. Eremenko V.A., Lushnikov V.N., Kosyreva M.A. Metod reytingovoy otsenki ustoychivosti podzemnykh gornykh vyrabotok Rm // Gornyy zhurnal. 2025. № 1. S. 9-19. Eremenko V.A., Lushnikov V.N., Kosyreva M.A. The Rm Rating Method for Assessing the Stability of Underground Mine Workings. Gornyj zhurnal. 2025;(1):9-19. (In Russ.).
6. Chunyuk D.Yu., Magomedov M.M. Snizheniye geotekhnicheskogo riska i realizatsiya mer po povysheniyu bezopasnosti proektirovaniya i stroitel'stva podzemnykh sooruzheniy // Yestestvennyye i tekhnicheskiye nauki. 2014. № 9-10. S. 381-383. Chunyuk D.Yu., Magomedov M.M. Reducing Geotechnical Risk and Implementing Measures to Improve the Safety of Design and Construction of Underground Structures. Estestvennye i tekhnicheskie nauki. 2014;(9-10):381-383. (In Russ.).
7. Hoej N.P. Risk and Safety Considerations at Different Project Phases. Safety, risk, and reliability – trends in engineering. International Conference. Malta, 2001, pp. 1-8.
8. Contreras L.-F., Hormazabal E., Ledezma R., Arellano M. Geotechnical risk analysis for the closure alternatives of the Chuquicamata open pit. MGR 2019: Proceedings of the First International Conference on Mining Geomechanical Risk. Perth: Australian Centre for Geomechanics, 2019, pp. 373-388.
9. Mishra R., Uotinen L., Rinne M. A Bayesian network approach for geotechnical risk assessment in underground mines. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. 2021;121(6):471-477.
10. Rusek J., Baraniak B., Karpi?ski Z. Bayesian predictive system for assessing the damage intensity of residential buildings located in mining areas. Scientific Reports. 2025;(15):82038.
11. Lan M., Tang Y., Sun X. Hybrid Bayesian network-based landslide risk assessment and early warning for storage tanks in sensitive industrial installations. Expert Systems with Applications. 2021;(168):114303.
12. Fedyanin A.S. Strategiya organizatsii kontrolya i upravleniya tekhniko-proizvodstvennymi riskami gornodobyvayushchikh predpriyatiy // Gornyy zhurnal. 2022. № 1. S. 11-15. Fedyanin A.S. Strategy of organization of control and management of technical and production risks of mining enterprises. Gornyj zhurnal. 2022;(1):11-15. (In Russ.).
13. Fedosova R.N., Kryukova O.G. Upravleniye riskami promyshlennogo predpriyatiya: opyt i rekomendatsii. M.: ZAO «Izdatel'stvo «Ekonomika», 2008. 125 s.
14. Sammatov V.A., Karasev V.A. Tekhnologicheskiye resheniya, povyshayushchiye ustoychivost' krepleniya gornykh porod // Ugol 2025;(5):22-26. URL: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/052025.pdf (data obrashcheniya: 15.12.2025). Sammatov V.A., Karasev V.A. Technological solutions that enhance rock stability. Ugol’. 2025;(5):22-26. Available at: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/052025.pdf (accessed 15.12.2025). (In Russ.).
15. Golavinskiy V.N., Lomakin A.Yu., Karasev V.A. Opytno-konstruktorskoye vnedreniye (OPI) aktivnykh i kombinirovannykh (passivnykh) tipov krepleniya na uchastkakh razvitiya opornogo davleniya v gornykh vyrabotkakh AO «TNK «Kazkhrom» // Ugol. 2025;(6):62-68. URL: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/062025.pdf (data obrashcheniya: 15.12.2025). Golavinskiy V.N., Lomakin A.Yu., Karasev V.A. Pilot implementation of active and combined (passive) types of rock support in the bearing pressureareas in mine workings of TNC Kazchrome JSC. Ugol’. 2025;(6):62-68. Available at: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/062025.pdf (accessed 15.12.2025). (In Russ.).
16. Ilina E.S. Upravleniye riskami – garantiya bespereboynoy i bezopasnoy raboty shakhty // Ugol. 2023;(8):59-61. URL: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/082023.pdf (data obrashcheniya: 15.12.2025). Ilina E.S. Risk management – an assurance of uninterrupted and safe operation of mine. Ugol’. 2023;(8):59-61. Available at: https://ugolinfo.ru/Jour/082023.pdf (accessed 15.12.2025). (In Russ.).
17. Noskov V.A., Badtiev B.P., Pavlovich A.A. Risk-menedzhment pri vedenii otkrytykh gornykh rabot // Gornyy zhurnal. 2020. № 2. S. 51-55. Noskov V.A., Badtiev B.P., Pavlovich A.A. Risk Management in Open-Pit Mining. Gornyj zhurnal. 2020;(2):51-55. (In Russ.).