ECONOMICS

Original paper

UDC 338.45:64.001.44 © A.L. Chupin, D.E. Morkovkin, M.A. Ekaterinovskaya, O.V. Orusova, I.V. Koroleva, 2025

ISSN 0041-5790 (Print) • ISSN 2412-8333 (Online) • Ugol’ – Russian Coal Journal, 2025, № 2, pp. 75-82

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2025-2-75-82

UNCERTAINTY IN ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS FOR COAL MINING ENTERPRISES

Authors

A.L. Chupin, D.E. Morkovkin, M.A. Ekaterinovskaya, O.V. Orusova, I.V. Koroleva

1 Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN), Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation, e-mail: chupin_al@pfur.ru

2 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125167, Russian Federation

Authors Information

Chupin A.L. – PhD (Economic), Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Economics for Scientific Work, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN), Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation, e-mail: chupin_al@pfur.ru

Morkovkin D.E. – PhD (Economic), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Leading Researcher at the Institute for the Study of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125167, Russian Federation

Ekaterinovskaya M.A. – PhD (Economic), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125167, Russian Federation

Orusova O.V. – PhD (Economic), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125167, Russian Federation

Koroleva I.V. – PhD (Economic), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125167, Russian Federation

Abstract

In a highly competitive and unstable modern economy, the assessment of economic efficiency of investment projects is an important task, especially for enterprises in the coal industry, which face a lot of uncertainty factors. This paper is devoted to the analysis of existing methodological approaches to accounting for uncertainty and risks in the assessment of real investments in the coal industry. The paper investigates the key criteria of economic efficiency, such as payback period, internal rate of return, investment risks and project profitability. The authors emphasize the need to take into account the uncertainty caused by both external (macroeconomic) factors and internal changes at the enterprise level. They apply economic and mathematical methods, including probability theory, interval analysis, methods of sensitivity analysis and decision trees, which allow modeling various scenarios and assessing their impact on project efficiency. In addition, the paper proposes a conceptual model that combines discrete and continuous methods of economic efficiency assessment, which allows for a more accurate consideration of risks and uncertainties. The model is focused on practical application for managers and investors in the coal industry, helping them to make informed decisions and reduce the risks of unsuccessful investments. Thus, the presented research makes a significant contribution to the development of investment project evaluation methodology and helps to improve investment management processes under uncertainty, which ultimately contributes to the sustainable development of the coal industry and enhances its competitiveness.

Keywords

Economic efficiency, investment projects, coal industry, uncertainty, risks, economic and mathematical methods, sensitivity analysis, probability theory, discrete methods, scenario analysis, internal rate of return, profitability, investment management.

References

Yan C., Ahmed S., Yasir Ahmed Solangi, Rakan Alyamani, Wali Muhammad Khoso. The Nexus between Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Progress, and Quality of Institutions in Fostering Sustainable Energy Efficiency: Evidence from BRICS Economies. Heliyon. 2024;10(14): e34222-e34222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34222.
Бусыгин Д.Ю., Возмитель И.Г. Экономический анализ инвестиционных проектов в условиях неопределенности и с учетом инфляции // Бухгалтерский учет и анализ. 2024. № 4(328). С. 38-44. Busygin D.Yu., Vozmitel I.G. Economic analysis of investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and taking into account inflation. Bukhgalterskij uchet i analiz. 2024;4(328):38-44. (In Russ.).
Дьячкина В.А., Изотова Е.В. Теоретические подходы к анализу инвестиционных рисков в контексте обеспечения экономической безопасности / Экономическая безопасность ТЭК: опыт, риски и перспективы в условиях цифровой трансформации: Ежегодный круглый стол: сборник научных трудов, Москва, 21–22 декабря 2023 года. М.: Российский государственный университет нефти и газа (национальный исследовательский университет) им. И.М. Губкина, 2024. С. 31-37.
Махиянова Э.И., Заступов А.В. Методические аспекты учета рисков в управлении инвестициями / Проблемы и перспективы развития системы учета, аудита и государственного управления в условиях цифровой экономики: тезисы докладов II Всероссийской научно-практической конференции с международным участием, Симферополь, 27 мая 2022 года / Министерство науки и высшего образования РФ; ФГАУ ВО «Крымский федеральный университет им. В.И. Вернадского», Институт экономики и управления, Кафедра учета, анализа и аудита, Кафедра государственного и муниципального управления. Симферополь: Крымский федеральный университет им. В.И. Вернадского, 2022. С. 218-221.
Haktan?r E., Kahraman C. Intuitionistic fuzzy risk adjusted discount rate and certainty equivalent methods for risky projects. International Journal of Production Economics. 2023;(257):108757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2022.108757.
Ren X., Huang Z., He Y. Financial warning for coal mining investments: Evidence from the fruit fly optimisation algorithm with backpropagation neural networks. Energy Economics. 2024:107594-107594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107594.
Feng Y., Chen J., Luo J. Life cycle cost analysis of power generation from underground coal gasification with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to measure the economic feasibility. Resources Policy. 2024;(92): 104996-104996. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104996.
Li J., Peng L., Yan Y., Wang Y., Zhang J., Li M., Xie K. Technological progress and coupling renewables enable substantial environmental and economic benefits from coal-to-olefins. Journal of Environmental Management. 2024;(353):120225–120225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120225.
Almaz?n-G?mez M., Llano C., P?rez J. Putting off the coal in Europe: Socio-economic trade-offs across the European regions. Energy Policy. 2024;(195):114360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114360.
Mao J., Wang D., Chen F., Li C., Shi X., Zhang Y. A novel text-based framework for forecasting coal power overcapacity in China from the industrial correlation perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2024;(208):123690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123690.
Yasuda Y. Quantifying the reduction in coal and increase in renewables in OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries: Proposal for a coal-renewable energy index and map. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2024;(198):114424-114424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.114424.
Wen S., Jia Z. The energy, environment and economy impact of coal resource tax, renewable investment, and total factor productivity growth. Resources Policy. 2022;(77):102742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102742.
Overland I., Loginova J. The Russian coal industry in an uncertain world: Finally pivoting to Asia? Energy Research & Social Science. 2023;(102):103150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103150.
Liu H., Guo W., Liu S. Comparative techno-economic performance analysis of underground coal gasification and surface coal gasification based coal-to-hydrogen process. Energy. 2022;(258):125001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125001.
Pandey S., Vimal Chandra Srivastava, Kumar V. Comparative assessment of different grades of coal for methanol production: Simulation, optimization, environmental and economic analysis. Energy. 2023;(284):129146–129146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129146.
Fan J.-L., Li Z., Ding Z., Li K., Zhang, X. Investment decisions on carbon capture utilization and storage retrofit of Chinese coal-fired power plants based on real option and source-sink matching models. Energy Economics. 2023;(126):106972-106972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106972.

Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the financial support of RUDN University within the framework of the scientific project № 203178-0-000 «Development of economic tools to ensure the creation of an intelligent management system of technological independence of the organization».

For citation

Chupin A.L., Morkovkin D.E., Ekaterinovskaya M.A., Orusova O.V., Koroleva I.V. Uncertainty in assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects for coal mining enterprises. Ugol’. 2025;(2):75-82. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2025-2-75-82.

Paper Info

Received November 11, 2024
Reviewed January 17, 2025
Accepted January 27, 2025