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Original Paper

UDC 658.386:622.867 © L.I. Ukolova, 2024

ISSN 0041-5790 (Print) • ISSN 2412-8333 (Online) • Ugol’ – Russian Coal Journal, 2024, № 2, pp. 23-30

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2024-2-23-30




Ukolova L.I.1

1Moscow City Pedagogical University, Moscow, 129090, Russian Federation

Authors Information

Ukolova L.I., Doctor Pedagogical Sciences, Professor Department of Music Institute of Culture, e-mail: Ukolovali@yandex.ru


Introduction. In the light of objective trends in the development of the coal industry and large-scale modernization of production facilities, an urgent task is to assess the availability of qualified personnel. An earlier study made it possible to forecast the gap in training at the level of 450-800 people by 2030.

Materials and methods. Statistical data on the demography and number of NPCs for 2010-2020 were studied. The analysis of the dynamics of training specialists is carried out. Mathematical models have been developed to calculate the rate of reduction of NPC and the need for specialists. Expert assessments have been received from enterprises on the dynamics of production.

Results. Based on modeling, taking into account all factors, an updated estimate of the gap up to 2050 in the range from 1,900 to 3,300 people per year was made in the implementation of different scenarios. It has been revealed that only a set of measures will reduce the deficit to 700-1100 people by the middle of the century. Quantitative estimates of the influence of each factor on the dynamics of human resources have been obtained. The conducted research made it possible to form a basis for monitoring the situation and developing an effective state policy in the field under consideration aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex.


Coal mining, Mining, Scientific and pedagogical personnel, Demand forecast, Higher education.


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For citation

Ukolova L.I. Forecasting the need for scientific and pedagogical personnel for the development of higher mining education in the field of coal mining. Ugol’, 2024, (2), pp. 23-30. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2024-2-23-30.

Paper info

Received January 9, 2024

Reviewed January 15, 2024

Accepted January 26, 2024


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