ECOLOGY
Original Paper
UDC 338.48(571.651) © O.V. Kitova, V.M. Savinova, L.P. Dyakonova, Yu.O. Bondarenko, 2023
ISSN 0041-5790 (Print) • ISSN 2412-8333 (Online) • Ugol’ – Russian Coal Journal, 2023, № 11, pp. 88-95
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2023-11-88-95
Title
FORECASTING TOURISM INDICATORS IN REGIONS WITH COAL MINING: ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES USING THE HORIZON INFORMATION ANALYTICAL SYSTEM
Authors
Kitova O.V.1, Savinova V.M.1, Dyakonova L.P.1, Bondarenko Yu.O.1
1Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Authors Information
Kitova O.V., Doctor of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Computer Science Department of the Higher School of Economics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, e-mail: Kitova.OV@rea.ru
Savinova V.M., Senior Lecturer of the Computer Science Department of the Higher School of Economics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, e-mail: Savinova.VM@rea.ru
Dyakonova L.P., PhD (Physical and Mathematical), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Computer Science Department of the Higher School of Economics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, e-mail: Dyakonova.lp@rea.ru
Bondarenko Yu.O., Master's student of the Higher School of Economics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, e-mail: bondarenkoulia66@gmail.com
Abstract
Forecasting tourism indicators in regions with coal mining is an urgent task, especially for Russian regions where coal mining is proceeding at an active pace. In the context of the national project “Tourism and Hospitality Industry”, attention is focused on the development of tourism, however, methodologies for forecasting tourism both for Russia as a whole and in the coal regions have not yet been formulated.
A study of existing approaches to forecasting tourism indicators showed the lack of comprehensive models that take into account the interaction of tourism with the coal industry and other socio-economic parameters of coal regions. In this study, the main indicators of the tourism industry are included as a separate block in the general model of socio-economic indicators of Russia in the information and analytical system "Horizon" developed by the authors.
This made it possible to construct short-term forecasts in conjunction with indicators of other economic blocks. Three indicators were successfully described using a linear regression model; for four indicators, an increase in the quality and accuracy of the forecast was achieved through the use of the Random Forest and k-nearest neighbors models; for two indicators, a linear regression model was adopted, which showed high quality values and average accuracy.
Thanks to the integrated use of tourism indicators, it was possible to create reliable models for predicting the development of tourism in Russia.
Keywords
Socio-economic indicators of the Russian Federation, Tourism industry, Coal regions, Forecasting, Time series, Hybrid information and analytical system.
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Acknowledgements
This research was carried out within the framework of the state assignment for research activities of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation entitled "Models, methods and algorithms of artificial intelligence in economic problems for analysis and stylization of multivariate data, forecasting of time series and design of recommendation systems", Project No. FSSW-2023-0004.
For citation
Kitova O.V., Savinova V.M., Dyakonova L.P. & Bondarenko Yu.O. Forecasting tourism indicators in regions with coal mining: analysis of opportunities using the Horizon information analytical system. Ugol’, 2023, (11), pp. 88-95. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2023-11-88-95.
Paper info
Received September 18, 2023
Reviewed October 13, 2023
Accepted October 26, 2023
